***OK, so above we have 3 charts... the Nasdaq and SPX dailies have the double doji look. A double doji is indicative of buyer/seller pressure equalization. I showed you below the consequences of this indecision in the destabilization of the 3 minute SPX chart in the last hours of the market today. We are setting up a FAST MARKET MOVE.
***You can look on your own charts to see one more important Double Doji... and that is $VIX. When you add to these facts the narrowness of the trading ranges of the past two days, it does say an explosive move is coming...
***My original thoughts were bearish, but the evidence is to the contrary. The Nasdaq is in a confirmed uptrend with a 10/10 price target of 1690. The Daily Candle trend turned back up on progressively higher volume and price. The SPX has also moved higher on improved volume.
***Now the SPX is holding under that price envelope as the Nasdaq is still reaching for the top of it. Markets like to trade in HARMONY, therefore we either reject the top of the envelope on the SPX at 936.36 and the Nasdaq doesn't hit that 1690 target in this timeframe or we'll see a strong rally in technology over the next few days...
***The SPX Hourly chart trend flipped up today, cancelling the 921 test. I'd like to be bearish here, but I don't see it tonight in these charts...
My apologies if you tried to make a comment, I just reconfigured the site so registered users may comment.
Tomorrow may be quite a battle. Just a hunch.
ReplyDeleteThe tension reflected in that 3 minute SPX chart is overwhelming... Tomorrow seems like the logical day, the pressure is mounting. Something like a 60 pt SPX day is coming, too early to conclude safely either way... All we can do is rely on our tools to determine if the move is for real or will be puked...
I'm pumped up for this, this should be fun.
Is there a price support level that if broken would help make the bearish case?
ReplyDeleteWho would have guessed that the great kickoff to the 2009 trading year would have started off with two low volume dojis?
ReplyDeleteNice work Semi,
ReplyDeleteThere is a High Volume on 12/30 at the 880-885 area, doesn't that suggest we should retest that area?
Ian
Nice work Semi,
ReplyDeleteThere is a High Volume on 12/30 at the 880-885 area, doesn't that suggest we should retest that area?
Ian
First off thanks for starting the Blog Tom. Here is my ChapmanWave count on USO daily http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/USO_01_06_16_40_1231278024.png weekly http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/USO_01_06_16_41_1231278091.png fwiw. Also, do you have any thoughts on KLAC? daily http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/KLAC_01_06_16_44_1231278286.png weekly http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/KLAC_01_06_16_48_1231278522.png Thanks again, great job Tom.
ReplyDeleteT&C - Yes clearly there is a high volume low candle you can see on the chart above on 12/30. Now will we slide through the support pivots in the 911-15, 900 and 888 and get there today? We could. This morning we gapped down on news, and now it's time to rationalize these mixed signals we got yesterday with double dojis all around. We'll see if this is a "wall of worry" setup, or if our trend change which we expect to come Friday is early... I'll give some intraday updates that may give us some clues...
ReplyDeleteHi GG,
ReplyDeleteBriefly, my read on USO for today is as long as we stay under 37.04, the 34.26 low is in play...
On KLAC we had a bearish upthrust relative to what happened on 10/15, we'll probably test yesterday's low here, and could see 21.55 10/15 low...
Going to be an interesting couple of days.